National Crisis: a rousing motivational film for all Britons

Hard to believe it’s 25 years since this film, reserved for times of national crisis, was first shown on The Day Today. Click on the link here to watch, 2 mins or so: 
The Day Today – Film Reserved For Times of National Crisis

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The brotherhood of flags

As the clock ticks down to 29th March, repeat to yourself the narrator’s empty reassurance to us all at the end:

This is Britain and everything’s alright. Everything’s alright. It’s OK. It’s fine.

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Cheer up, doctor, no one’s died. Not yet ..

If nothing else, the next few weeks are going to test our much vaunted national GSOH. So put your laughing socks on and settle in. If you don’t laugh, you’ll cry, as they say.

By coincidence, following The Day Today writer, performer and ardent Remainer David Schneider on twitter (@davidschneider), he posted the picture below on the same day as this blog post. It turns out the The Day Today people got together for a 25th anniversary dinner the other night. As Collately Sisters might have said: “In summary: wish I was a bit younger.” But they have aged gracefully and gone on to other great things, from Brass Eye to Alan Partridge to Death of Stalin to Outnumbered to Veep to IT Crowd to Borat to The Thick Of It to Smack The Pony to Toast of London to, yes, War and Peace (the latter featured Rebecca Front, whose dad btw designed the Beatles logo on the cover of Rubber Soul):

The Day Today 25 years

The news has turned silver, Chris: Front, Iannucci, Mackichan, Baynham, Marber, Coogan, Morris, Schneider in their cups

Oh and a special mention for Chris Morris’s interviews a while back with Sir Arthur Streeb-Greebling (the late Peter Cooke) – genius stuff if you ever get hold of them. A starter is here Sir Arthur Streeb-Greebling.

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Tell me now how do I feel?

Blue Monday

It’s ‘Blue Monday’ today but worry not – McDonald’s are giving away free burgers this week and the European VP of Twitter Bruce Daisley has taken the opportunity to tout his book The Joy of Work:  https://www.standard.co.uk/business/bruce-daisley-blue-monday-is-rubbish-but-the-workplace-is-killing-us-a4044466.html

I find the title probably the most depressing thing imaginable, but I’m sure it’s a good read. He tries to have his ‘Blue Monday’ cake and eat it, feigning disdain for this January marketing ruse while using it himself. He thinks we interrupt each other too much and open-plan offices are partly to blame; he talks of the unproductiveness of too many meetings and emails, and instead the gains to be had from shorter informal chats to move thinking forward and find shortcuts. All sensible stuff, though not enough to lift my January fug, which as previous posts may suggest, is Brexit-related. No, I need a stronger pick-me-up.

Not forthcoming from Marketing Week, who report IPA Bellweather data that:

There were no changes in marketing budgets in the fourth quarter, with 16.4% of marketers reporting they plan to increase spend and 16.4% saying they plan to cut it, leading to a net balance of 0% and marking the end of six consecutive years of growth.

When looking ahead to the 2019/20 financial year, 27% of those surveyed anticipate growth compared to the 26% predicting cuts, giving a net balance of just 1%.

Additionally, the underlying pessimism is predicted to impact every media channel.”

I’ve got the joy, joy, joy, joy down in my heart, down in my heart …

Surely I’m worrying too much, how bad can things get … Let me reassure myself with some nice reassuring ONS / Bank of England statistics, those lot are calm heads:

ONS / Bank of England on Brexit outcomes

Oh my good God.

Blue Monday, you’ve left me with no choice:

We still have kittens – no one can take that away from us.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2019: sunlit lowlands

 

PortstewartPicOfMonth


Reasons to be cheerful – Portstewart Strand

Christmas has been a welcome break from my addiction to Brexit podcasts. Perhaps for that reason I’m seeing things less feverishly than a few weeks ago. No new answers to it all have emerged of course – we’re in a genuine pickle in this country – but it’s not time to give up on us just yet. Why my optimism?

  • May’s deal will be voted down
  • Parliament desperately wants to avoid a ‘no deal’ Brexit and, when push comes to shove, will force the government to comply – either by recommending a renegotiation with an alternative approach like Norway Plus, by requiring a new referendum on the way forward and/or by just delaying the leave date until we’re in a position to do so without a cliff edge.

As it stands today, we don’t know those things for sure, because they have not happened yet. And there are viable scenarios in which May could send us careening over the precipice. But they are, imho, pretty unlikely ones. Once we are past the “meaningful vote” on 15th January and what will surely be a feverish few weeks of realignment as MPs vote on alternative ways forward, things could very look different.

Mike Reid runaround

G-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-go … Today’s MPs as 80s children took part in intensive training for the parliamentary aftermath of the meaningful vote, under the watchful tutelage of Mike Reid. In the tv show ‘Runaround’, the kids were given 5 seconds to change their minds after getting a p***-easy question wrong the first time. Here, we see Reid imprisoning future members of the European Research Group who had tested his patience with daft non-answers.

The EU for now can’t say anything other than support the May deal, but once it’s dead in parliament, the interesting stuff happens. They have signalled in other ways they will be open to an alternative UK approach, because they badly want to avoid a no deal too.

I am making myself a hostage to fortune here, but hey, I can just delete this post and pretend I didn’t make these wrong predictions. No screenshots please …

So my guess is we’ll avoid the grim outcomes that seem possible now and business will continue after March more or less as usual – for a while at least.

If I really stick my neck out, while I want a referendum on the way forward, I can see a general election scenario later in 2019 – because the government may well reckon its best chance of getting its way on Brexit is not through the current parliament but by going to voters and using the negative Corbyn factor (that is, voters wanting to avoid the Labour leader becoming PM, even if they don’t back the Tories) to get a decent Tory vote and a possible majority. It’s a big gamble, but might they just get into such a corner it starts to look appealing to them?

Whatever happens, Shore will be kicking around talking to the British public about this, that and the other – usually the other – as I’ve done for the last nine years as an independent. Still going strong despite launching in inauspicious post-crash conditions in 2010 and I’m bloody well going to beat what Brexit throws at me too. We need a bit of Blitz spirit perhaps, but why oh why did we impose this Blitz on ourselves?

 

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Government divided and confused, so is public – but business means business

Sir Lancelot

In search of the Holy Grail of public opinion research truth, the good sir knight takes no prisoners

This from Sir John Curtice the other day is a great reminder of the realities of public opinion on Brexit: Curtice for the BBC: what kind of Brexit.

I picture the dashing data knight as Cleese’s Sir Lancelot at the wedding in Holy Grail, running amok through the castle, wantonly butchering hapless garlanded politicians with his Sword of Truth. Or of opinion data at any rate.

Sir John skewers the carousing Brexiteers by pointing out how divided the country is on what sort of Brexit we want. He cites for example the ORB tracking numbers on how the public makes the central trade-off of Brexit. It’s between controlling immigration (the No1 issue in voters’ minds in the run-up to Brexit, according to Ipsos MORI and others at the time) and having free trade – and the British public is still evenly split on where we see the priority:

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But this is not something UK business is quite so agnostic about – and when making massive economic decisions, business counts an awful lot in the government’s calculations. This in the FT last year gives a flavour of how big FTSE companies see it: FT: big business on Brexit. Ipsos MORI’s Captains of Industry study in January showed the levels of concern even then on the UK government’s ability to get a good deal for British business:

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See the full data: Ipsos MORI Captains of Industry report, Jan 2018

Johnson

A hard hat isn’t enough now, pal

With Jaguar Landrover (with whom I did some lovely driver-meets-designer interviews a few years ago on the Range Rover Evoque – let’s get me in here) joining other car manufacturers now in speaking out in some alarm against any kind of hard Brexit (Independent: JLR speaks out), is the game really up now for the hard Brexiteers? Johnson’s infamous “f*** business” sounded a lot more like a cry of desperate panic than of triumph.

Business thinks the hard Brexiteers have no clothes. Some of the public hasn’t completely realised it yet, but business has now started to say it aloud. Cue Danny Kaye …

 

 

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Long hot summer of Brexit may be about to get hotter

Carlos Valderrama

Valderrama: he was the future once

Never make predictions, they say, especially on blogs that people might read after the prediction has already died a death. But after England lose 17-16 to Colombia on penalties this evening, in a bizarre shoot-out in which Gloria from Modern Family races onto the pitch dressed in a Carlos Valderrama wig, bearing the skull of Pablo Escobar, in order to distract Jordan Pickford, here’s what’s coming next. Not in the World Cup – clearly Switzerland will win it as usual – but in that much more gripping end-to-end contest between two highly talented (surely ‘un-‘? -Ed) teams, Brexit.

Simon Wren-Lewis, an emeritus economics professor here in Oxford, writes a blog called Mainly Macro which is always worth a read. He’s not afraid to roam into politics and he writes for the general reader, not just economists. I think he nails it here on where we are now on Brexit: Simon Wren-Lewis: Brexit Endgame.

That’s pretty much how I see it. The parliamentary arithmetic dictates some form of “soft” Brexit – that is the UK in something like the current customs union, plus a high level of regulatory alignment with the EU – and the hard Brexiteer squeals just now are likely to cries into the void. The hard Brexiteers, for all their media ubiquity, just don’t have the numbers in parliament for a hard Brexit. That’s been clear since they lost in December on the “meaningful vote”. Theresa May is keeping them onside as long as possible for party unity, but eventually – whether at Checkers this week or at one minute to midnight on deadline day – she will go for the best deal available for British business. Yes, business – remember that?

Brexit bus tight corner

Nowhere left to turn: they re-sprayed the Brexit Bus white in honour of Vladimir Putin’s naked torso, but it got stuck during its triumphant tour of mid-Wales unemployment hotspots

Johnson’s “f*** business” notwithstanding, the Conservatives pride themselves as being the party of business. Ignoring business pleas for a soft Brexit would turn the Tories into a party of the ideological right, not the realistic, pragmatic middle. With Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, the middle ground is there for the taking – or centrist Tories will certainly feel it is. So I just don’t see Theresa May going against UK plc when push comes to shove, despite the rhetoric.

Theresa May seems to me of the sensible pragmatist strain of traditional Tory. She is also I think, though I’m not her biggest fan, or a fan at all in fact, someone who feels a serious sense of duty to her country, not just her party. I think she’s gone way too far already in trying to appease the Brexiteers for the sake of the party; she will have to climb down on a number of high profile statements about Brexit if we are to have a deal at all. But I do think ultimately she knows what side Britain’s bread is buttered on. She will, when she finally has no other choice, disappoint the hardliners. That’s if they don’t bring her down.

piggy back

It’s been a fun ride for a rejuvenated Bernard Jenkin, but Theresa May is getting sweaty now inside the clown outfit

Triggering a leadership election and potentially winning it is something the hard Brexiteers can potentially do. The thing is though, her replacement would be faced with the same parliamentary numbers Theresa May has and would have no better chance of uniting the Tories behind a hard Brexit. The Jacob Rees-Moggs and Bernard Jenkins of this world know that May is their best conduit to work through – they are piggy-backing on her, politically, because she commands more support from Tory MPs than they do. She knows they know. What’s going on now seems to be May edging bit by bit towards a soft Brexit and daring them to jump off. If they do, and move to unseat her as PM, it will show the game’s up for the hard Brexiters – it would be a last desperate gamble, feeling they have nothing to lose.

I’d add though to the Wren-Lewis analysis one cat that could be put amongst the Brexit pigeons – and I suspect will be, by increasingly desperate Brexiteer Tory MPs – immigration. To get the kind of trading terms we want with the EU single market, the UK will be asked to accept “free movement”. At the moment, the EU is being absolute that it would have to be the exact same kind of free movement we have now; I am not so sure it can’t be tweaked at the edges. But either way, we may well soon once more be back onto the topic of immigration. Why is this significant and a bit worrying?

A week before the Brexit referendum in June 2016, Ipsos MORI showed this in their regular issues tracker – Ipsos MORI tracker June 2016 – that immigration was the biggest issue for British people thinking about the 2016 referendum, ahead of even the economy:

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The immigration issue’s key role has been confirmed by subsequent studies like the British Attitudes Survey: The Independent: BSA survey suggests immigration concerns crucial to Brexit vote. It was also clear from trackers in the months and years before the referendum was called that EU membership per se was really not a hot topic for many people, but immigration was. And recent Ipsos MORI polling shows that even now, post-Windrush, which has shifted attitudes somewhat in a pro-immigration direction, it’s still a massive issue for the public. Over half of us still want overall numbers reduced: Ipsos MORI: attitudes to immigration after the Windrush scandal.

It’s an issue over which the public sits up and takes notice, in a way it really doesn’t over the byzantine maze of trade deals, single markets and customs union arguments. Most of us don’t really know a hawk from a handsaw on those issues when we really get into the detail. We tend to say, “Get on with it and sort it out” to the politicians, which has been the refrain of Question Time audience after Question Time audience for a year and more now. But we know, or we think we do, whether we like having more or fewer people from other countries living in the UK. And we tend to have strong views on it, especially those people who feel there has been too much immigration.

Sealford Mods

We’re going down like BHS … but it is some solace that we’ll still have Sleaford Mods to tell us about it with appropriate levels of anger and swearing

So here is my Nostradamus moment on Brexit: I think immigration is going to come back into the debate, big time, and it will shake things up like no other issue has thusfar. I think it will be used by hard Brexiters as the reason why we can’t agree to close relationships with the EU on the single market and customs union. The hard Brexiters will put May under huge pressure on this, and it may also unnerve a lot of Labour MPs in Leave constituencies. The parliamentary arithmetic that favours a customs union might end up in quite a different place over single market access – and put quite a spanner in the soft Brexit works.

union jack on head

Prince Albert of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, cooling off yesterday

What’s more, this bit of messy politics will not be left to the politicians alone: the public and the press will be engaged as never before in the heated Brexit arguments.

If you thought you’d had enough of the heat, I’m sorry: it could be about to get much hotter.

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“From Sappho to Suffrage: Women Who Dared” – and the women standing up in 2018

No one likes an uxorious man – but as my wife Prof. Senia Paseta is the curator of a new (and not untopical) exhibition about pioneering women, a plug seems very much in order. The exhibition opened this week in Oxford and is called From Sappho to Suffrage: Women Who Dared (Bodleian Libraries events page: From Sappho To Suffrage). Equally amazing is something else she has put together as co-director of Oxford University’s Women in the Humanities: a 2018 “Suffrage Wall” of contemporary prominent women who wanted to help mark women getting the vote 100 years ago: WiH’s 2018 Suffrage Wall. It is fascinating, inspiring and moving in equal measure.

The BBC website, like many, has picked up on the display of one particular curio from the suffrage era: the only known surviving copy of a suffrage board game called Suffragetto.  Senia explains the background a little here: BBC Arts: how a board game helped women win the vote.

Suffragetto high res

Suffragetto: the Albert Hall or the clink for our intrepid female democracy campaigners? Hiding £100 notes under your knee while your brother was getting some Kia Ora won’t help on this one.

In short, it’s an example of the ingenious lengths the Suffrage Movement went to to raise money for the cause. It’s a reminder too that an eye for popular culture is no recent thing in political campaigning. It’s like someone in 1909 making a Call of Duty: Green and Purple Ops. OK, so Boardgamegeek.com only rate it 5.9 (Boardgamegeek.com on Suffragetto), but on the other hand it’s almost certainly had considerably more female attention in the last week than the guys who write for Boardgamegeek.com have enjoyed in their lifetimes.

The suffrage artefacts in the exhibition are fantastic, but there’s a lot more to the exhibition. You’ll also want to see:

  • the “Suffrage Wall” – one wall of the exhibition is devoted to the 2018 “Suffrage Champions”, marking 2018 as the centenary of women’s suffrage. Prominent women of today from around the UK and across the political spectrum are there, “making a powerful statement about women’s achievements and the continuing need to challenge barriers to gender equality one hundred years since women were first enfranchised.” Suffrage Champions have each contributed a few words of inspiration and it makes fascinating reading. More detail than could be fitted into the exhibition space lives on the online version of the Suffrage Wall https://wih.web.ox.ac.uk/suffrage-wall.
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    Women in the Humanities’ Suffrage Wall, 2018: just some of the Ds … Warning: you may be embarrassingly moved by it, so bring some dark glasses and a hat if reading on the train.

    It is an absolutely brilliant thing, please do take a look. You might start with someone you know already like Katya Adler, Dame Katherine Grainger, Ali Smith or Bridget Christie – then discover amazing women you might not have heard of. I now know who Octavia Goredema, Purna Sen and Sarah Wood are and I realise I really should have already known them. The relative invisibility of women in large areas of public life is still a national, and international, shame.

  • As the title of the exhibition suggests, fragments of Greek poet Sappho’s writing, from versions transcribed almost 2,000 years ago: https://treasures.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/treasures/poems-by-sappho/
  • An original of Mary Wollstonecraft’s A Vindication of the Rights of Women, from 1792: https://treasures.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/treasures/mary-wollstonecraft/
  • A teenage Jane Austen’s hand-written novella, called “The Beautifull Cassandra”: https://treasures.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/treasures/jane-austen/. It’s described as “a parody of sentimental literary convention and style: the heroine falls in love with a bonnet, ‘devours’ and refuses to pay for six ice creams, knocks down a pastry cook and runs away.” Coming with me to the beach, that one.
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Prof. Senia Paseta, co-founder of Oxford University’s Women In The Humanities research centre, at the Suffrage Wall. Senia curated the exhibition and assembled the Suffrage Wall project. Here she is relishing an evening away from having her limbs chewed by our teething puppy, Lucky

The venue is the Weston Library, part of Oxford Universary’s remarkable Bodleian Libraries which underwent a multi-million pound refurb in 2015 and is a stunning place to visit these days – decent cafe too, which is always important. If you spent your student years as I did, you may know the Weston Library as that building between the King’s Arms and the White Horse on Broad Street.

It runs for the rest of 2018 and right through to February 2019, so there is no shortage of opportunities to pop your head in. If you’re a tight-a***e like me, you will be thrilled to hear it’s free entry too.

 

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Happy new year from Shore

I’m going to do more on the blog this year, he promises again – but this time he means it. But just to put 2017 behind us, I hereby recycle the Christmas tree of The Onion’s inestimable review of the year. Do yourself a favour and take a gander at the big stories of the year: The Onion Review of 2017.

A couple that I particularly loved. This is beautifully done:

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The full text is worth reading, so well written – here: Earth’s orbit story

And I do like the expression on the woman on the left’s face in this:

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So it’s back to work. Hoping to reconnect with some old collaborators in 2018. The last two years in particular have been super busy and it’s easy just to focus on delivering the projects and fall out of contact with old muckers. So I’ll be saying hello again to people and getting out of my coccoon a bit more.

Part of that is making sure I get booked onto some good training courses. I’ve signed up for two already, one with a sense of excitement and one with, being quite honest, some trepidation.

The exciting one is through the AQR, for whom I have been an “ambassador” for several years. It’s a two-parter on the impacts of Behavioural Economics (https://www.aqr.org.uk/calendar/info.shtml?event=EV18BE1), first session being at Wallace Space in Clerkenwell on 25th January, delivered by Crawford Hollingworth and Caroline Hayter. I was lucky enough to be at the AQR’s inaugural session on BE when it was bursting through into qual research consciousness back in 2011. The review of how clients see it now (session 2) will be particularly interesting.

The one I’m a bit nervous about, because it may involve me having to expend time and money on admin, is an online course run by Lesley Cooley, on General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). I am doing it because these important rule changes kick in in a few months and I need to see what Shore needs to do to be compliant. I am not anticipating a barrel of laughs, but it fits neatly with another bigger resolution for 2018 – possibly the most boring resolution I or anyone else has ever made – putting more effort into the admin side of the business. I have tried to shove this Cinderella into the basement with only a bucket of water and a mop, but it’s time to give Shore admin some sunlight this year. Especially with new quarterly accounting requirements starting in the Spring too.

If you haven’t shot yourself by this stage, in a post that started brightly, congratulations. But actually I do feel genuinely refreshed and ready to go, after a quiet close to 2017 that gave me time to catch up with myself. 2017 was a good year for Shore, which I measure by the variety of projects, the number of personal firsts and the enjoyment I’ve had in my work (and it was decent financially too, if you’re being all traditional businessy about it). Highlights of 2017 included:

  • running a longitudinal online and offline piece tracking and comparing the daily working lives of financial professionals in different roles
  • interviewing some of the country’s leading doctors about their careers and plans
  • making segment films with my trusted videographer and director of BBC3’s “The Rapper Who Chopped His Penis Off”, Tim Crawley. What Tim makes of my film projects having hung out with Wu Tang Clan collaborators, I know not. I certainly can’t be accused of not “keepin’ it real”. I mean, Eccles on a wet Tuesday morning …
  • sorting the hell out of the coffee aisle in big supermarkets, from a shopper perspective
  • moderating and analysing one of the most complex online communities ever, I think, on a food innovation project. Wowzer.
  • some initially angst-inducing but as it turned out, really successful fieldwork in the same room at Home Sweet Home, a few months apart, on two very different projects. The project on electrical goods packaging in particular was one where I really wondered how it would go, but it ended up really quite a vintage night’s groups. It’s great when the challenging topics come through and produce a bit of magic like that – and big thanks to Podengo for getting the brilliant participants on that one.
  • helping a fantastic copy writing agency with their clean up of a thicket of pensions communications
  • highlight of the year probably, no offence to other projects: listening to teenage boys talk about their attitudes to relationships. Only a small part of a much bigger project, but it is just so fascinating to see how young people are growing up now, particularly with mobiles now acting as almost part of themselves, with all the dangers that brings. Good news is, I think there is much to be optimistic about, on that side of life anyway.

Hoping for a good crop of projects to educate and entertain myself and others in 2018. If nothing else, it takes my mind off Brexit.

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